The tiny blips in my portfolio

My portfolio has recovered somewhat. It might seem as a surprise to you, but I tend to do less, read less when market is going up. I don’t know why – psychologically I feel that the better value period has just ended.

Also recently, especially in the Aug and Sept period, there is more volatility in the share prices of some my holdings. Example, I remembered seeing a 17+% increase in the share price of Sarine Technologies Ltd in a single day sometime in Sept, or a 23+% increase in share price of Colex just last Friday. I tend to forget the huge price drop in Aug / Sept 2015 :p — just kidding (more like mentally block out hah).

Most of the time I would blog about the stocks in my portfolio that are showing red, cause I think that is more important. In addition, to me , buying is easier than selling, and I think we make most of the profit by buying at the right price and really it (the buy price) is the only thing you can control.

Perhaps this blog is just a mental note on the other (not so significant) things – the stocks that have jumped higher in my portfolio since the lows in Aug / Sep 2015. The so called blips.

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Actually I don’t really like writing about stock price rise since for all I know the stock price might plunge next week – and so what am I going to write about then – lamenting about my stock losses?

This is really a micro zooming on the short term price fluctuation – which essentially doesn’t mean much. The market is irrational in the short term. I think we shouldn’t really be focusing too much on prices unless it is to facilitate us in the buying. However, nevertheless, I am just glad that the losses aren’t too great – and the companies which I have invested in did not get into major problems. Like the thinking of Walter Schloss, who was really focused on not losing (rather than thinking about the upside). To him, by not losing money is already winning.

“…He doesn’t worry about whether it it’s January, he doesn’t worry about whether it’s Monday, he doesn’t worry about whether it’s an election year. He simply says, if a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents, something good may happen to me. And he does it over and over and over again. He owns many more stocks than I do — and is far less interested in the underlying nature of the business; I don’t seem to have very much influence on Walter. That’s one of his strengths; no one has much influence on him” Warren Buffett

Nevertheless, here are the blips.

  1. The first would be Golden Agri. It was not too long ago (on 29 Sept 2015) when I did a post lamenting the steep price drop of this stock over many years (since 2011) – read here. Well, the recent crude oil rally, El Nino weather event and higher use of palm-based bio-diesel by Indonesia seem to help pushed the price of CPO higher and indirectly caused Golden Agri stock price to go higher. It jumped from a low of 0.29 in 25 Aug 2015 to 0.39 on 30 Oct 2015. This represent a rise of approx. 34% in approx. 2 months plus.

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2.  The second would be Colex. Colex’s stock price is odd. In the sense it is a very thinly traded stock- so the volatility can be very extreme. Also it is really difficult buying its stock… unless you bid at prices beyond the bid price. Occasionally I will try to bid for the shares, and the order would be left unfilled from morning to when the market close.

Basically on 30 Oct 2015, there were 4 trades, and the price ranged from 0.28 to 0.37. I am really curious as to why the price increased 20 – 30+% in a single day. I tried surfing the web for any significant news but can’t find any. I reckon it must be really hard buying this stock and someone need to really raise the bid price to 0.37 to buy a tiny amount. On one hand I am glad that the stock price has advanced so much in a single day, on the other I am wondering if I can sell my share at that price – would there be any buyers at all :p

The stock price of this company has risen from the low of 0.26 in 24 Aug 2015 to 0.37 on 30 Oct 2015, representing a rise of approx. 42% in approx. 2 months plus.

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3. The third stock would be Nirvana Asia. This is the newest stock in my portfolio, having only bought in early Oct. I did not buy it at the lowest point in Aug 2015. If I did, there would be a big price jump. Nevertheless, there was a substantial rise in its share price since I bought the shares. The stock price of this company has risen from the low of 1.77 in 25 Aug 2015 to 2.31 on 30 Oct 2015, representing a rise of approx. 30.5% in approx. 2 months plus. Not bad for a company that deals in something as depressing as death.

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4. The last would be Riverstone Holdings Ltd. Beside the usual good earnings result, the other catalyst would be the rumor on possible M&A – read here.

The driver for much of the enthusiasm in Malaysia is down to the perceived ambitions of industry leader Top Glove for M&A opportunities, as well as a weak ringgit, Maybank notes.

“Riverstone and UG Healthcare both fit the bill for Top Glove, as both are differentiated players,” it says.

Basically I still prefer shares when their prices are knocked down really hard – so I did not really add to my positions even during the Aug / Sept 2015 drop in its share price, as I felt that Riverstone’s shares were still overvalued then. Basically my doubts would be, would the feel good factors like low Malaysian Currency / high USD, MERS scare, M&A hype would be still intact months down the road. I rather pick up more of this company’s share when these variables are gone, and when things are a bit more normal – or tilting towards depressive.

The stock price of this company has risen from the low of 1.585 in 22 Sept 2015 to 1.99 on 30 Oct 2015, representing a rise of approx. 25.5% in approx. 1 month plus.

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In general my overall portfolio still show a slight paper loss. However, I have been spending most of my time reading up and watching videos on Elon Musk and Peter Thiel.

And really I tend to focus more on the more boring asset class I have at the moment – which is cash (war-chest). Which tends to get really sexy when a crisis hits (cash is king). Would like to grow my war-chest a bit bigger.

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About apenquotes

Born in 1976. Married with 2 kids (a boy and a girl). A typical Singaporean living in a 4 room flat.
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